Washington, DC – With the 2024 election drawing to a close, a thorough evaluation of national and battleground polls is now possible.

Analysis reveals that while not flawless, the polls were generally accurate in their predictions, a notable feat given the challenges faced by the polling industry in recent years.

In terms of the presidential race, the final national NBC News poll had Donald Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a tie at 49% each. This closely mirrored the RealClearPolitics average, which had Harris slightly ahead at 48.7% to Trump’s 48.6%. The New York Times’ average also had Harris leading at 49% to Trump’s 48%.

The actual popular vote results currently stand at Trump 49.9% and Harris 48.3%, indicating that while the polls slightly overstated support for Harris and understated it for Trump, they still performed admirably compared to previous election cycles.

Battleground polls, while slightly less accurate than national polls, were still largely on target in predicting the election outcomes.

It is important to note that political polls, with their inherent margin of error and other limitations such as low response rates, should not be viewed as precise measurements of election outcomes. Rather, they provide a snapshot of the race’s competitiveness.

In addition to forecasting the close nature of the election, the polls also captured key demographic trends that shaped the 2024 contest, including shifts in support among Latino voters and young voters.

While the polls correctly predicted Democratic downballot candidates outperforming their presidential nominee and vice versa for Republican candidates, there were some inaccuracies in assessing the size of the gender gap in voter support for Harris and Trump.

Despite these shortcomings, the polls overall provided valuable insights into the political landscape leading up to the 2024 election, shedding light on the dynamics that influenced voter behavior and candidate performance.

One notable aspect of the polling in 2024 was the varying assessments of party identification, with some polls showing Republicans with an advantage while others favored Democrats. This discrepancy underscores the complexity of predicting election outcomes based on shifting voter dynamics.

In conclusion, while the polls in 2024 were not without their flaws, they largely succeeded in capturing the essence of the election and providing a nuanced understanding of the factors at play in shaping the political landscape.