Washington, D.C. — Senior officials in the Trump administration have expressed concerns that an ongoing federal government shutdown could have significant negative effects on the U.S. economy, with estimates suggesting potential losses in the billions each week.

Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, highlighted the risks associated with the shutdown, stating that the current situation is not conducive to productive negotiations. He emphasized that the prolonged closure could lead to reduced economic growth, affecting both businesses and American workers.

Analysts from EY Parthenon have indicated that each week of shutdown may decrease the nation’s GDP growth by approximately 0.1 percentage points in the fourth quarter, which could equate to a staggering $7 billion hit per week. This downturn can be attributed to several factors, including unpaid furloughs for federal employees, stalled government contracts, and diminished consumer demand.

A memorandum from the White House Council of Economic Advisers suggests that the initial estimates might be conservative. The memo foresees a potential $15 billion loss to the economy for every week the shutdown persists, predicting that a month-long stoppage could lead to around 43,000 job losses. Additionally, it forecasts a significant drop in consumer spending, which could fall by approximately $30 billion over the same period.

The memo further details that beyond individual economic impacts, the shutdown could disrupt essential services. These include Social Security benefits, air travel, and nutritional aid for women and infants, suggesting that the longer the impasse continues, the more pronounced the effects will be on everyday Americans.

Analysts note that while some damages could be offset by backpay for federal workers and a rebound in economic activity once the government reopens, the long-term ramifications may linger. The immediate financial consequences could also impact market stability and reduce confidence among businesses, complicating the decision-making processes for federal policymakers and investors alike.

Historical context provides a sobering backdrop. The last government shutdown, which lasted 35 days from December 2018 to January 2019, is estimated to have cost the economy at least $11 billion, including a permanent loss of about $3 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. This prior shutdown did not account for various indirect impacts, including delays in federal permits and limitations on loan access, highlighting the extensive reach of such shutdowns.

As the deadlock continues, the implications extend far beyond fiscal figures, influencing the lives of many Americans whose livelihoods depend on a smoothly functioning government. With uncertainty still looming, the stakes remain high for both the economy and the public.