Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia — An aging Soviet spacecraft that has been orbiting Earth since its failed mission to Venus is expected to re-enter the atmosphere in the coming days, but experts say there is little reason to worry. The spacecraft, named Kosmos-482, has been adrift for more than five decades following a rocket malfunction shortly after its launch in 1972.
Currently weighing around 1,100 pounds, Kosmos-482 is slated for uncontrolled re-entry this Saturday, with predictions estimating its descent may occur around 4:26 a.m. Eastern Time. However, experts warn that forecasting the precise timing of such events is challenging due to variables like atmospheric conditions and space weather affecting its orbit.
Historically, various remnants from space — including decommissioned satellites and spent rocket parts — re-enter the atmosphere nearly every day. According to the European Space Agency, the majority of these objects disintegrate and burn up harmlessly before reaching the Earth’s surface. In fact, the chances of any debris causing harm are exceptionally low, as a large portion of the planet is covered in water.
“The risk associated with satellite reentry incidents is extremely minimal,” ESA officials noted in a report on the spacecraft. They mentioned that the likelihood of an individual being injured by falling space debris is significantly lower than the risk of being struck by lightning, estimated at about 1 in 100 billion annually.
Kosmos-482 is projected to fall within a vast geographical area stretching between 52 degrees north and south latitude — this expanse covers large parts of North America, Europe, Asia, and much of the ocean. Current predictions suggest it might descend over Borneo, Malaysia, or possibly land in the Southern Ocean off Australia.
This spacecraft was part of a series of Soviet missions launched to explore Venus, but it became trapped in Earth’s orbit instead. While much of the original debris from the mission has long since descended, the spherical landing capsule remains the last significant piece expected back on Earth soon.
Marco Langbroek, a scientist tracking Kosmos-482 from Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, indicated that the capsule was engineered to endure the extreme conditions on Venus. Consequently, it could survive its return to Earth intact, although it is likely to impact with significant force. He expressed skepticism about whether the capsule’s parachute deployment system would function after so many years without maintenance.
Despite the potential to survive re-entry, Langbroek reassured the public that the risks to people on the ground remain low. The capsule’s mass and size endow it with a risk profile comparable to that of a meteorite impact, but still well within manageable levels.
As Kosmos-482’s descent unfolds, researchers will continue to refine their predictions, yet the exact landfall remains elusive. With a fifty-year legacy now nearing its close, the spacecraft’s fall serves as a reminder of humanity’s complex relationship with space exploration and its enduring artifacts.
