The Hague, Netherlands — A decades-old spacecraft designed for a Venus mission in the 1970s is poised to make an uncontrolled descent back to Earth, raising questions about where it may land and what remains of it will survive re-entry. This relic of the Soviet space program, known as Kosmos 482, failed to reach its intended destination, finding itself stuck in Earth’s orbit since its launch in 1972 due to a malfunction during liftoff.

Experts monitoring the spacecraft’s trajectory predict that it could re-enter the atmosphere around May 10. Marco Langbroek, a Dutch scientist specializing in space debris, estimates the object will strike at approximately 150 mph, but the exact location of its landing remains uncertain. “While there are risks involved, it’s important not to overreact,” Langbroek stated in a recent communication.

The small size of Kosmos 482 contributes to a relatively low risk of injury or damage to people or property. Langbroek emphasizes that the chances of the spacecraft hitting anything or anyone are slim, pointing out that the likelihood is comparable to that of a random meteorite fall. “You have a higher chance of being struck by lightning in your lifetime,” he remarked.

Originally part of a series of missions aimed at exploring Venus, Kosmos 482 met an untimely end, with most of its components re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere within a decade. However, experts believe the spacecraft’s spherical landing capsule, roughly 1 meter in diameter, has remained in orbit for over 53 years, gradually descending as it circled the globe.

While it is possible that the capsule could withstand the intense heat of re-entry, built to endure Venus’s harsh atmospheric conditions, doubts surround its parachute system and heat shield, which may have deteriorated after years in space. Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, noted that a failing heat shield might lead to the capsule burning up upon re-entry, a safer outcome compared to its intact descent.

The spacecraft poses potential risks as it could enter the atmosphere anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, spanning areas as far north as London and as far south as Cape Horn in South America. However, Langbroek remains optimistic, suggesting that the vast bodies of water covering the planet increase the odds of the spacecraft crashing into the ocean.

Recent history has seen similar incidents involving uncontrolled space debris. A Chinese booster rocket made a high-profile uncontrolled descent last year, and the Tiangong-1 space station re-entered Earth’s atmosphere in 2018. Each re-entry raises discussions about space traffic management and the increasing presence of debris in Earth’s orbit.

As Kosmos 482 hurtles back toward Earth, scientists continue to follow its descent closely, balancing their concerns with the understanding that such events are part of living in an age of space exploration. The world watches as this historical artifact prepares to conclude its unexpected journey through the cosmos.