New York – A recent survey of chief financial officers from businesses across the United States has revealed the impact of President Donald Trump’s trade war on hiring plans. The survey, conducted by Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, found that one in four businesses has scaled back their hiring due to uncertainty caused by the ongoing trade war.

The quarterly survey showed a significant drop in CFO economic optimism as they struggle to navigate the challenges posed by the trade war. Many executives are unsure about the future impact of tariffs, leading to a deer-in-headlights moment for businesses. The lack of clarity on tariff rates, affected products, and duration of tariffs has pushed some businesses to pull back on their hiring plans.

According to the survey conducted from February 18 to March 7, approximately 25% of CFOs have reduced their 2025 hiring plans due to tariffs. While about 70% stated that trade policy will not affect their hiring plans, only 6% reported an increase in hiring intentions. Additionally, 25% of CFOs mentioned cutting their capital spending plans this year due to trade policy concerns.

John Graham, a finance professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business, highlighted the immediate threat posed by tariffs, stating that they present a significant risk in the short term. The survey also noted that only a few firms have adjusted their hiring and spending plans in response to immigration or corporate tax policies, indicating the overwhelming impact of tariffs on business decisions.

Public sentiment around the economy has been deteriorating, with tariffs becoming a top concern among businesses in recent months. While tariffs were ranked as the 9th most pressing concern for CFOs in the fourth quarter of last year, they have now surged to the top spot. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the back-and-forth nature of the trade war under Trump’s second term have rattled investors, impacted consumer confidence, and unnerved business owners.

One CEO, Ryan Messenger, expressed his concerns over the increase in costs due to tariffs for products imported from Mexico, leading to a rise in prices for consumers. The trade policy ambiguity has caused confusion and disruptions for businesses, with suppliers raising prices in anticipation of tariffs.

Overall, the CFO survey paints a picture of businesses grappling with the challenges posed by tariffs, which could potentially lead to reduced hiring and increased costs. As businesses navigate this uncertain landscape, the impact of tariffs on hiring and consumer behavior remains a key concern for the economic outlook in the coming months.