WASHINGTON, D.C. – In October, consumer prices remained steady from the previous month, as a decrease in oil prices had a dampening effect on headline inflation. This was revealed in the latest data released Tuesday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a 0% increase from the previous month and a 3.2% increase from the previous year in October, showing a slowdown from September’s 0.4% monthly increase and 3.7% annual gain.
Economists had predicted a 0.1% increase in prices month-over-month and a 3.3% increase year-over-year; however, energy price declines held back the headline figures, with energy prices falling 2.5% month-over-month, driven by a 5% drop in gas prices in October.
On a “core” basis, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices climbed 4.0% over the previous year in October, lower than the annual increase seen in September. Monthly core prices increased 0.2%, also lower than September’s monthly rise. Economists had expected core prices to rise 0.3% over the previous month and 4.1% over the previous year.
Following the release of the data, US stocks rose in early trading and Treasury yields ticked down 2 basis points to trade near 4.6%. Inflation remains significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, but investors seem to be betting that the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates in December.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated earlier this month that the slowing down of inflation is giving them a better sense of whether more action is needed. Following the release of the data, markets were pricing in a nearly 100% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in December, according to data from the CME Group.
Other notable call-outs from the inflation print include the shelter index, which rose 6.7% on an unadjusted, annual basis – the slowest increase in a year. Rent increases remained elevated but continued to show signs of easing, with the index for rent and owners’ equivalent rent rising 0.5% and 0.4% on a monthly basis, respectively.
Additionally, other indexes that rose in October included motor vehicle insurance, which increased 1.9%, and the indexes for recreation, personal care, and apparel also saw increases. Overall, the latest inflation data shows a mixed picture, with steady headline inflation but signs of easing in core prices and certain categories.









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