Qingdao, China — China’s exports have continued to decline to the United States, marking eight consecutive months of reduced shipments to its largest consumer market, despite a recent trade agreement. While overall exports have increased unexpectedly, economists are concerned about the shrinking demand from the U.S.

In November, outbound shipments from China rose by 5.9% compared to a year earlier, surpassing preliminary estimates of 3.8% growth. This uptick follows a surprising contraction of 1.1% in October, the first downturn since March 2024. However, imports into China only increased by 1.9%, falling short of the 3% anticipated rise, as persistent challenges in the housing sector and job insecurity weigh heavily on domestic consumption.

Chinese officials have reiterated commitments to expand imports while addressing international criticism over their aggressive export strategies. Despite this, exports to the U.S. plummeted by 28.6% in November, particularly troubling as imports from the U.S. also dropped by 19% following a trade truce recently negotiated by leaders from both nations.

Economist Gary Ng from Natixis highlighted that the U.S. continues to impose significant tariffs on Chinese goods, which can lead exporters to find pathways through third countries to access the U.S. market. Currently, tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. hover around 47.5%, while those on American imports to China stand at about 32%.

This year, China’s exports to the U.S. have decreased by 18.9%, coupled with a 13.2% drop in imports. In contrast, exports to other regions surged, with increases of more than 8% to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and nearly 15% to the European Union (EU).

Despite a challenging trade environment, China’s overall exports in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 5.4%, while imports slipped 0.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.076 trillion, a 21.6% increase year-over-year.

In the wake of the recently established trade agreement, which included commitments from China to boost purchases of U.S. soybeans and manage the flow of fentanyl, some areas showed signs of growth. China’s exports of rare earth minerals rose significantly, hitting 5,494 tons in November, up 24% from the prior year. However, the increase in soybean imports, which exceeded 8 million metric tons, signals a slower-than-expected pace in fulfilling U.S. purchasing promises.

Later this month, Chinese policymakers will convene for the Central Economic Work Conference to discuss economic priorities for the forthcoming year. Experts predict the government will maintain an economic growth target of around 5%, even as domestic demand remains tepid.

As the yuan appreciates, its impact on exports remains to be seen. Though the currency has strengthened approximately 5% since April, some analysts argue that for sustained growth, China must shift its focus from exports to enhancing domestic consumption. This strategy may offer a more balanced economic approach moving forward.