New York, USA – Global trade faced further challenges in the midst of the third quarter of 2024, as indicated by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data showed that trade conditions continued to deteriorate, especially towards the end of the quarter. The Global PMI New Export Orders Index fell to 48.9 in August, down from 49.6 in July, marking the steepest decline in eight months.

The decline in trade was mainly driven by the manufacturing sector, with new export orders plummeting in August. This decline was attributed to disruptions in the global supply chain and shipping delays, which affected the flow of goods worldwide. Additionally, manufacturers reported that they were reducing their purchases of inputs due to cost considerations, further exacerbating the downturn in global trade.

While the manufacturing sector struggled, the service sector experienced growth in export business in August. The expansion was driven by sectors such as transport, industrial services, non-bank financials, and software services. However, the manufacturing sector lagged behind, with real estate services being among the worst performers.

Developed markets led the decline in exports in August, with the downturn accelerating at the fastest pace since the previous December. On the other hand, emerging markets experienced a near-stall in exports, with a notable decline in manufacturing exports. This trend highlighted the deteriorating trade conditions at the source, particularly in emerging economies.

India maintained its lead in export growth but at a slower pace than previous months. Other countries such as Russia, South Korea, and Brazil also saw growth in goods export orders, albeit at a marginal level. However, the EU and Canada remained the worst performers among the top 10 trading economies, with sharp declines in export rates.

Mainland China experienced a decrease in goods exports for the first time in 2024, signaling a shift in manufacturing conditions in the latter part of the year. The global trade outlook remains uncertain, with hopes that easing interest rates could stimulate demand in the manufacturing sector. As the year progresses, the impact of monetary policy moves on global trade will be closely monitored through upcoming PMI data.