KOSMONOSK, Russia — A historic piece of space history is set to make its return to Earth this weekend, as the Soviet-era spacecraft Kosmos 482 is expected to reenter the atmosphere after nearly 50 years in orbit. Experts are closely monitoring its descent, predicting that it could crash back to our planet as early as tonight.

The European Space Agency has stated that the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft is anticipated to breach the atmosphere around 2:26 a.m. EDT on Saturday, with a possible variation of approximately four hours. This gives a tentative reentry window from 10 p.m. EDT Friday to 7 a.m. EDT Saturday. Meanwhile, Colorado-based Kayhan Space has offered an even narrower forecast, estimating a reentry time of 2:28 a.m. EDT with a margin of just over two hours.

Derek Woods, a senior astrodynamics engineer at Kayhan Space, noted that variations in atmospheric density at lower altitudes contribute to the uncertainty of the reentry predictions. “Conditions can rapidly change, making accurate forecasting challenging,” he explained.

The falling craft, measuring about three feet in diameter and weighing approximately 1,091 pounds, could land anywhere within a vast swath of territory between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude. This encompasses a significant portion of Earth’s landmass, including many populated regions. Despite this broad range, experts believe the likelihood of the spacecraft striking an inhabited area is low, as uncontrolled reentries often end in the ocean.

As tracking efforts continue, analysts are unable to pinpoint a more precise landing location until the craft is much closer to atmospheric reentry. The unpredictable effects of atmospheric drag play a significant role in the craft’s descent trajectory.

The risk of injury to individuals from falling debris remains minimal, estimated at roughly one in several thousand, according to astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell. He emphasized that while the event raises curiosities, the risks involved are largely managed due to the vastness of Earth’s surface.

Originally launched in 1972, Kosmos 482 was intended as part of the Soviet Union’s Venera mission to Venus. While sister probes successfully landed on the planet, Kosmos 482 encountered a malfunction that left it stranded in an elliptical orbit around Earth. Over decades in space, it has remained a testament to early space exploration efforts.

The craft is expected to survive its descent relatively intact, having been originally engineered for reentry under the harsh conditions of Venus’ atmosphere. As it plummets toward Earth, it will likely be traveling at speeds approaching 150 mph.

The return of Kosmos 482 highlights larger concerns in the realm of space exploration and debris management. Currently, there are over 1.2 million pieces of space debris larger than 1 centimeter in orbit, complicating space traffic management and heightening the risks of collisions.

As global satellite launches continue to rise, experts call for more proactive measures in space debris remediation. Woods emphasized the urgency of incorporating controlled end-of-life plans into space missions to mitigate the congestion surrounding Earth. With the increasing prevalence of larger defunct objects entering the atmosphere, it is imperative for space agencies to invest in debris removal technologies and strategies to maintain the safety of outer space exploration.