Caracas, Venezuela — The international landscape shifted dramatically as Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was reportedly captured and flown out of the country following a large-scale U.S. military strike. This sudden turn of events has left the nation’s political future uncertain and raised urgent questions regarding its vast oil reserves.

Venezuela possesses an estimated 303 billion barrels of crude oil, accounting for approximately 20% of the world’s total reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This significant resource has not been effectively utilized under Maduro’s regime, which has faced criticism for mismanagement and a hostile stance toward foreign investment in the oil sector.

In the immediate aftermath of the strike, analysts are left to speculate about the impact on oil prices, given that weekend trading in oil futures does not occur. The administration has allowed much of the oil infrastructure to deteriorate, complicating the potential for any immediate benefits from the country’s rich deposits. “Maduro’s government has systematically undermined the oil industry,” noted Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst.

With Maduro’s removal, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez may step into power, potentially perpetuating the current socialist policies that have defined the nation since Hugo Chávez took office in 1999. This transition raises critical questions about whether the country will continue on its current trajectory or embrace reforms that could revitalize the oil sector.

The coming days are pivotal. The support of the Venezuelan military for either the opposition or the current regime could greatly influence both domestic stability and global oil markets. According to Flynn, “If we see military backing for the opposition, it will signify a major win for global markets. Conversely, if unrest escalates or civil conflict ensues, the reaction will likely be negative.”

Despite holding the largest proven oil reserves globally, Venezuela’s production has dwindled to about 1 million barrels per day—significantly less than its historical output. This represents roughly 0.8% of the world’s daily crude oil production and is down by more than half of what the country produced prior to Maduro’s rise to power in 2013.

Sanctions levied against the Venezuelan government and ongoing economic turmoil have exacerbated the plight of its oil industry, which suffers from historical underinvestment and neglect. The current state of the energy infrastructure presents a stark contrast to the nation’s untapped potential. As such, even a total disruption of Venezuelan oil exports might not trigger a significant increase in global oil prices, as the nation’s output is no longer regarded as a major influence on the market.

Market dynamics have stayed relatively stable this year, with OPEC increasing production amid stagnant demand due to economic pressures. Oil prices briefly touched $60 a barrel when the U.S. government initiated actions against Venezuelan vessels, but they have since returned to around $57 a barrel, reflecting a muted response to current events.

Many analysts contend that the unique composition of Venezuela’s oil, characterized as heavy and sour crude, presents additional challenges. This type of oil requires specialized refining processes, and while international oil companies have the capability to exploit these resources, they have been barred from the country.

Should international companies gain access to Venezuelan oil, it could substantially benefit the United States, which is currently experiencing supply constraints in diesel fuel. The logistical advantages of sourcing oil from nearby Venezuela could enhance refinery efficiency stateside.

Flynn emphasized the significance of this moment: “If U.S. companies are allowed to return and revitalize Venezuela’s oil industry, it could dramatically reshape the global oil market.” The next few days will be crucial in determining whether this potential can be fully realized amid a transformed political landscape.