COPENHAGEN, Denmark — Novo Nordisk, a leading player in the obesity treatment market, has lowered its sales forecasts for the first time since the introduction of its Wegovy weight-loss medication four years ago. Despite this adjustment, the company’s shares saw a rise of nearly 6%, driven by expectations of a sales rebound in its largest market, the United States.
The success of Wegovy has significantly bolstered Novo Nordisk’s standing, making it Europe’s most valuable publicly traded company with a peak valuation of approximately $615 billion. However, recent developments have led to a slump, causing the company’s market value to drop to around $310 billion. After experiencing stagnant prescription growth in the United States since February, investors have voiced concerns over potential competition from Eli Lilly, whose Zepbound obesity drug has gained traction in the same market.
Novo Nordisk’s new projections indicate 2025 sales growth in local currencies between 13% and 21%, down from an earlier estimate of 16% to 24%. Operating profit growth for this year is now expected to fall between 16% and 24%, a decrease from the previously projected 19% to 27%. Despite the adjustments, company executives remain optimistic, pointing to a potential turnaround following an impending ban on compounded versions of Wegovy that have been impacting its market share.
Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at Union Investment, noted that the guidance revision was anticipated by investors. He expressed hope for a positive shift in sales beginning in June, coinciding with the exit of competing products from the marketplace. Investors reacted positively, with shares trading 5.9% higher shortly after the announcement.
The U.S. pharmacy benefits manager CVS Health recently excluded Zepbound from certain reimbursement lists, which could play a crucial role in Wegovy’s competitive landscape. Novo reported a decline in first-quarter sales for Wegovy to 17.36 billion Danish crowns ($2.64 billion), representing a 13% drop from the previous quarter and falling short of analysts’ expectations.
Company leadership emphasized that a key factor in recovering Wegovy prescriptions will be the enforcement of a ban by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on compounded copies. Pharmacies producing these alternatives have been given a deadline until May 22 to cease production, as the FDA has determined that these medications are no longer in short supply.
Novo Nordisk’s Chief Executive, Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, explained that approximately one-third of the U.S. obesity drug market has been “captured” by compounding pharmacies, which has negatively affected growth in this critical market. He expressed astonishment at the volume of unapproved products available to patients, highlighting the unusual circumstances within the industry.
As tariffs on pharmaceuticals remain a concern under ongoing trade policies, Jorgensen noted that Novo’s operations in the U.S. are robust, with more exports than imports and a significant workforce across multiple production facilities. Although the company has not announced plans for new U.S. manufacturing sites in response to potential tariffs, Jorgensen pointed out a commitment of over $24 billion in investments in the U.S. over the past decade.
In terms of financial performance, Novo reported first-quarter earnings before interest and taxes of 38.79 billion crowns, exceeding forecasts of 37.20 billion crowns based on insights from analysts. As the company navigates these challenges and opportunities, its future in the global obesity treatment market remains closely watched.
