US Military Presence in Niger Uncertain Following Coup

The recent coup in Niger has raised doubts about the future of the United States’ military presence in the country, which has been crucial in the fight against Islamist militants in the Sahel region, according to officials and analysts. For the past ten years, US troops have provided counterterrorism training to Nigerien forces and operated two military bases, including one that conducts drone missions against Islamic State and an Al Qaeda affiliate in the area.

After the coup on July 26, which removed President Mohamed Bazoum from office and placed him under house arrest, the junta revoked military cooperation agreements with France. This move has prompted concerns about the US military’s ability to maintain its presence as the West African regional bloc ECOWAS threatens military intervention and Russia’s Wagner mercenary group offers assistance to the coup leaders. These developments could pose safety risks for US military personnel and might force US planners to consider a future without a foothold in a region where insurgencies are prevalent and where the US competes with Russia and China for influence.

Despite these uncertainties, the United States has not yet received any official request to remove its troops and there is no indication that it will be forced to do so, according to anonymous US officials. The US drone base in Niger plays a crucial role in countering terrorism in the region, and its closure would be a significant setback, stated one of the officials.

The Biden administration has not formally designated the military takeover in Niger as a coup, which would limit the security assistance Washington can provide to the country. However, certain foreign assistance programs for Niger have been paused, including funding for international military education, training, and programs supporting Niger’s counterterrorism capabilities. Additionally, military training has been put on hold.

The US drone base, known as airbase 201, has become increasingly important due to the lack of Western security partners in the region. With coup leaders taking control in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso in recent years, and the withdrawal of French troops and the imminent departure of a UN peacekeeping force from Mali, the US military presence in Niger has become crucial for regional security efforts. The drone base, constructed at a cost of over $100 million, has been used since 2018 to target Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) in the Sahel.

Since the coup, US troops have largely remained on their bases, and military flights, including drones, require individual approval, according to US officials. Cameron Hudson, a former US official now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes that the US will make efforts to continue using the drone base regardless of who is in charge of Niger, as it helps gather intelligence on militant targets across the region and does not directly benefit the coup leaders.

However, the US may be compelled to reconsider its presence if ECOWAS decides to intervene militarily. The junta has defied an ECOWAS deadline to reinstate the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. Terence McCulley, former US ambassador to Mali, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast, believes that the US military would make a “force protection decision” if conflict were to erupt, although he doesn’t expect ECOWAS to stage such an operation promptly.

Another potential complication could arise if Niger’s coup leaders seek assistance from the Wagner Group, designated by the US as a transnational criminal organization. Wagner’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has expressed support for the coup and stated that his forces are ready to restore order. Wagner mercenaries have previously partnered with Mali’s junta and currently have about 1,000 fighters in the country, where jihadist groups control significant portions of the desert.

While the presence of a few dozen Wagner forces in Niger’s capital, Niamey, is unlikely to affect the US military presence, safety concerns may arise if thousands of Wagner fighters spread throughout the country, particularly near the drone base in Agadez.

Regardless of these potential challenges, the US has stated that the only way its mission in Niger will end is if the Nigerien government requests their departure. The US considers its military presence in Niger to be of utmost importance and is determined not to abandon it.