Wells Fargo Stock Soars to Near All-Time Highs Despite Fed Restrictions – What’s Next for Investors?

Charlotte, North Carolina – Wells Fargo, a major bank, has experienced a sharp rise in its stock price, reaching near all-time highs at around $60. Despite facing restrictions from the Federal Reserve on assets and capital returns to shareholders, the bank’s stock has seen a significant rally from below $40 at the end of the previous year.

The Federal Reserve’s stress test results, while once crucial, have diminished in importance since the financial crisis. With stricter capital requirements in place, the likelihood of a crisis reoccurring has decreased. Wells Fargo recently disclosed its 2024 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test, aiming for a stress capital buffer (SCB) of 3.8%.

Following the stress test outcomes, Wells Fargo announced a 14% increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.40 from $0.35. The bank also hinted at the potential for share buybacks, although exact figures were not provided due to stringent capital constraints inhibiting their ability to return capital to shareholders.

Despite repurchasing $6 billion worth of shares in the first quarter and nearly $14 billion in the past year, Wells Fargo must adhere to heightened capital requirements set by the stress tests. The SCB ratio rose to 3.8% from 2.9% prior to the results, affecting the bank’s CET1 ratio and available capital for future buybacks.

Analysts believe that Wells Fargo, despite the stock’s recent surge, remains a relatively inexpensive investment opportunity. The bank’s ongoing share repurchases have led to a 7% decrease in share count year-over-year, ultimately boosting EPS. Moreover, with the asset cap still in place, Wells Fargo aims to have it removed by 2025.

Looking ahead, Wells Fargo’s potential for EPS growth through share buybacks is promising. However, the stock is currently trading close to its peak price-to-tangible book value (P/TBV) of the last five years, indicating a more neutral stance around the $60 mark. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding credit costs also poses a significant consideration for investors.

In conclusion, while Wells Fargo may not offer the same level of excitement with its stock at all-time highs and regulatory limitations still in effect, investors should weigh the opportunity for solid long-term gains against the backdrop of restricted growth. The bank’s commitment to share repurchases and respectable dividend yield could make it a viable, albeit not market-beating, investment choice.