YPF: Surges 55% After Argentina Election Shock – Will Dividends Follow?

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina – After surprising and pro-business election results in Argentina, the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) saw a 55% surge from year-ago levels. This bullish market move came in the wake of Javier Milei’s libertarian victory and amid the nation’s struggle with high inflation and other macro concerns. Despite its recent challenges, YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF), an integrated oil company in Argentina, continues to show potential for growth and profitability.

According to Bank of America Global Research, YPF, with total oil and gas reserves of 1,043mn boe and total production of 511tboepd in 2020, is expected to see improved trends over the next several years. The company operates exclusively within Argentina and is currently trading at a low non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio. However, YPF reported a somewhat disappointing quarter earlier this month, with its net loss appearing worse than forecasts.

As the new libertarian leader takes office, analysts at BofA see earnings rising sharply this year. However, there is still considerable risk given the uncertainty surrounding the Argentine economy. YPF’s valuation, dividends, and free cash flow are all elements to consider when evaluating the company’s future prospects. Despite a recent rally in shares, resistance levels and support zones present technical challenges for potential investors.

Looking ahead, YPF’s unconfirmed Q4 2023 earnings date of Thursday, March 7, is an upcoming milestone for the company. The stock’s recent performance has shown some positive signs, but careful consideration of its technical situation is advised. Overall, while YPF shows potential for growth, both fundamental and technical factors should be closely monitored by investors in the coming months.