Berlin, Germany – As votes continue to be counted in Germany’s recent election, political analysts are already looking ahead to the potential ruling coalition that will need to be formed in the Bundestag. In order to secure a government, a minimum of 316 seats out of the 630 in the Bundestag is required.

One possible coalition that has been speculated is between the CDU and AfD, which would easily reach the necessary 316 seats. However, conservative leader Friedrich Merz has dismissed this possibility, deeming it out of the question. This leaves the SPD, led by Olaf Scholz, as a potential partner for the CDU, as together they barely scrape by with 328 seats.

Another option for the CDU to secure a stronger majority is to include the Greens in the coalition, bringing their total to 416 seats. But the CDU’s junior partner CSU has already expressed reluctance to work with the Greens, complicating the formation of a coalition.

While theoretically the CDU could lead a three-party coalition with the SPD and the Left party, their deep ideological differences make this scenario highly unlikely. Prior to the election, there were discussions surrounding a left-wing coalition comprising the SPD, Greens, and the Left, but because their combined seats fall short of the 316 threshold, this option seems unfeasible.

Ultimately, it appears that no coalition can be formed without the CDU’s involvement. With strained relations between the CDU and the Greens and the Left, the SPD remains the most viable option for a coalition partner. The question now is whether the SPD will once again join forces with the CDU, replicating the “Grand Coalition” that existed during Angela Merkel’s tenure.